Khartoum – Sudan Now 

Sudan’s war has increasingly evolved into a drone-dominated conflict, with both the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) adapting their tactics, supply networks and aerial capabilities as fighting intensifies around Darfur, according to a new report by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED).

The report, published on June 4, said the SAF has maintained a sustained air campaign targeting RSF strongholds and supply routes across western Sudan, while the RSF has shifted toward fewer but more strtegic drone strikes aimed at military facilities and critical infrastructure in government-controlled areas.

According to ACLED, the conflict has entered a new phase characterized by the growing use of advanced drones and increasingly sophisticated aerial operations. The report cited an incident on May 23 in which a SAF-operated Akinci drone reportedly fired a missile to intercept an RSF-operated drone of the same type, marking the second known instance of drone-on-drone combat since the war began.

ACLED said the fact that both sides now operate Turkish-manufactured drones supplied through different intermediaries highlights the complexity of regional arms networks and the ability of supply chains to bypass restrictions and geopolitical rivalries.

SAF Targets RSF Supply Networks

The report said the SAF has benefited from a diversified arsenal that includes Iranian-made combat drones, Turkish-Pakistani systems and Turkish Bayraktar platforms, allowing it to project air power across multiple fronts simultaneously.

According to ACLED, the SAF has focused in recent months on disrupting RSF supply routes in western and northwestern Sudan, forcing the group to rely more heavily on alternative routes through neighboring countries.

In May alone, ACLED recorded 17 SAF air and drone strikes in Nyala, the RSF’s main stronghold in South Darfur, the highest monthly total recorded in the city since the outbreak of the war in April 2023.

The report also said SAF drones targeted fuel shipments and markets near Sudan’s western border with Chad in an effort to disrupt cross-border supply networks. On May 15, airstrikes reportedly targeted an RSF convoy arriving from Libya and heading toward El Fasher ahead of planned military operations in North Darfur.

Darfur remains one of the most strategically important theaters of the war, with Nyala, El Fasher and border areas near Chad and Libya serving as critical supply corridors and military staging grounds.

RSF Faces Supply Pressures

On the other side, ACLED said the RSF has relied since late 2024 on supply networks that the report says included Chinese-made equipment delivered through Libya and Chad with backing from the United Arab Emirates.

The report noted that the RSF has gradually expanded its aerial capabilities from basic loitering munitions to more sophisticated long-range platforms capable of striking targets deep inside SAF-controlled territory.

According to ACLED, those capabilities enabled the RSF to reach strategic locations in Red Sea, Northern and River Nile states during the past year.

However, the report identified a decline in the number of RSF drone strikes over the past three months, suggesting growing pressure on supply chains and operational capacity.

While attacks have become less frequent, ACLED said they have increasingly focused on high-value targets, including airports, military installations, air defense systems and key economic infrastructure.

The report estimated that SAF air defenses intercepted nearly 13% of RSF drone operations during the past year, compared with an interception rate of approximately 2.3% for RSF defenses against SAF drones, highlighting a significant imbalance in air defense capabilities.

Darfur and the Border Triangle

Looking ahead, ACLED assessed that Darfur is likely to remain the central battleground of the conflict, particularly as both sides continue mobilizing forces in the Sudan-Libya-Egypt border triangle.

The report suggested that the SAF will likely continue using intensive air strikes to weaken RSF positions in Darfur ahead of expected ground operations, especially as the rainy season approaches its peak in August.

At the same time, the RSF is expected to adopt a more defensive posture in Darfur while relying on targeted attacks against military facilities and critical infrastructure in SAF-held areas in an effort to slow potential ground advances.

ACLED further assessed that the RSF could face increasing challenges if the main front shifts toward North Darfur because of the region’s distance from eastern and southern supply routes, continued SAF bombardment of Nyala airport and growing internal pressures linked to recent defections among senior commanders.

The report concluded that the expanding use of drones is transforming the nature of Sudan’s conflict, allowing military operations to continue far beyond traditional frontlines and increasing the likelihood of prolonged, lower-intensity violence even in the event of battlefield stalemate.

The findings come amid growing concern over the impact of drone warfare in Sudan after a series of attacks targeting military sites, economic facilities, infrastructure and civilian areas during the country’s ongoing conflict, which began in April 2023.