KHARTOUM – The risk of famine is expanding into parts of South Darfur, including East Jebel Marra, as drought, poor harvest prospects and continued conflict deepen food insecurity across western Sudan, according to a new food security assessment.

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) said large parts of Darfur, Kordofan and Blue Nile are expected to remain at Emergency levels of acute food insecurity, IPC Phase 4, through January 2027, while some populations in the worst-affected areas are likely to continue facing Catastrophe, IPC Phase 5, at the household level.

Surveys conducted between late August and early September found that Global Acute Malnutrition exceeded the famine threshold in two of four displacement camps assessed in Sharg Aj-Jabal, also known as East Jebel Marra.

The report stressed, however, that the findings do not establish a famine classification for the area. Food consumption indicators and crude and under-five mortality rates remained at Emergency levels.

FEWS NET warned that households in the area have little capacity to withstand further deterioration after conflict severely eroded livelihoods, assets, mobility and coping mechanisms.

If drought-related crop losses drive substantially more people into the area and food available from local production, markets and humanitarian assistance falls far below minimum needs, the report said, extreme food consumption gaps could increase and mortality could rise rapidly.

Under such circumstances, famine could become the most likely outcome.

The warning comes as Sudan’s war, which began in April 2023, continues to disrupt agriculture, trade, population movement and health services, leaving families increasingly vulnerable to another poor agricultural season.

Famine risk also persists in previously identified areas of North Darfur, including Um Baru, Kernoi, Al-Tina, Kutum, rural El Fasher, Mellit and Tawila, as well as Dilling, Kadugli and surrounding rural areas in South Kordofan.

The report said renewed fighting or severe restrictions on movement, trade and humanitarian access, combined with poor or failed harvests, could further isolate households from food and income and push acute malnutrition and mortality beyond famine thresholds.

Some households are also expected to remain in Catastrophe, IPC Phase 5, in the worst conflict- and drought-affected locations, including El Obeid and surrounding areas and among some displaced communities in Darfur and Kordofan.

That household-level classification is distinct from declaring an entire geographical area to be experiencing famine.

Compared with projections issued in August, the latest assessment expands the number of areas expected to remain in Emergency, IPC Phase 4, during the harvest period.

The additional areas include Dar As Salam and Al-Sireif in North Darfur; Jebel Moon and Sirba in West Darfur; Sharg Aj-Jabal, Mershing and Nitega in South Darfur; Shia’ria in East Darfur; and parts of Sodari in North Kordofan.

Severely below-average rainfall across much of western Sudan in September compounded the poor June-to-September rainy season, limiting crop recovery and causing localized crop failures.

The drought has also reduced pasture and water availability, pushing pastoralists to move south earlier than usual and increasing the risk of disputes with farmers as livestock enter cultivated land.

The report noted deteriorating livestock conditions, rising distress sales, falling livestock prices and increased animal deaths in parts of North and West Darfur.

Below-average harvests are expected to provide only limited seasonal relief in relatively calmer areas, while humanitarian needs are likely to remain unusually high and the 2027 lean season could begin earlier than normal.

Food prices have also risen sharply.

Prices of millet, sorghum and wheat grain increased by between 36% and 41% from August to September, following increases of 26% to 29% between July and August.

The steepest cumulative rises were recorded in Darfur markets, reflecting poor production expectations, reduced supply and high transportation costs.

Health and nutrition conditions are deteriorating alongside food insecurity.

Of 20 nutrition surveys conducted between June and September, 13 found critical levels of Global Acute Malnutrition, including six where prevalence exceeded 20%.

In Tawila, a 200-bed hospital operated by Médecins Sans Frontières serves around 600,000 displaced people, while malaria and severe acute malnutrition cases continue to rise.

The report estimated that about 37% of Sudan’s health facilities are out of service, while the 2026 Humanitarian Response Plan was only about 41% funded, further limiting access to healthcare, nutrition, safe water and other essential services.

Humanitarian partners reached approximately 3.7 million people with in-kind and cash assistance in August, but FEWS NET said that represented less than 20% of the population it estimates to be in need.

Darfur and Kordofan accounted for nearly three-quarters of people reached by World Food Programme operations during the month.

Conflict and insecurity also triggered the displacement of about 27,200 people during September across North Kordofan, Blue Nile, South Kordofan, North Darfur and South Darfur, placing further pressure on already strained host communities.